Experts estimated the minimum cost of the Humo payment system at 60-80 million dollars
In July, the State Asset Management Agency (SAMA) announced the start of the privatization of the Humo payment system, the first phase of which ended on August 22. Kazakhstan's fintech group Kaspi has expressed its interest in acquiring the Humo payment system.
In mid-July, the State Asset Management Agency announced the start of the privatization of 100% of the National Interbank Processing Center, which manages the Humo payment system.
Deloitte consulting company acts as a consultant for this agreement. Humo's sales process is organized in three stages, and the first stage ended on August 22.
Kazakhstan's fintech group Kaspi has shown interest in acquiring Humo. The company plans to develop the existing business model and complement it with payment technologies and services.
Spot spoke with experts about the reasons for Kaspi's interest in the local fintech market, a possible deal and Humo's minimal value.
The possibility of an agreement with Caspian
According to Cap Depo investment banker Muzaffar Rozikov, the main reason for Kaspi entering the Uzbekistan market is that the Uzbekistan market is bigger than the Kazakhstan market. Other factors include the high level of mobile communication, cashless payments and the development of e-commerce, which is more extensive in Uzbekistan than in the countries Caspian is interested in.
There are several successful fintech companies in Uzbekistan that fit Kaspi's business model. The arrival of a new player on the market means an increase in competition for ordinary users, said Rozikov.
"In my personal opinion, Kaspi's chances of success in privatizing Humo are high and it will bring good results," said Muzaffar Rozikov.
The financial analyst stressed that if Humo is acquired by one of the local banks, questions may arise regarding the competitive environment among other banks.
Yodgor Gafurov, partner and co-founder of Gafurov, Kardash & Partners, believes that the acquisition of Humo by the leading foreign financial ecosystem in Central Asia can significantly change the balance of forces in the Uzbekistan market.
"It is possible that Caspi's chances of successfully completing this deal are not high. Even if the deal goes through, local players may use regulatory and administrative means to protect their interests, which will create serious challenges for Caspi and slow down its growth in the local market. ", said the expert.
Kaspi can theoretically cooperate with a local player at the level of equity capital. However, "this will not be easy for Caspi as a public company traded on Nasdaq due to certain regulatory requirements," he added.
The minimal value of Humo
In September 2022, AÜGA sold its 75% state share in the Uzcard payment system for 210.1 billion sums (about $19 million). However, during the privatization of Uzcard, Muzaffar Rozikov noted that Uzcard was a private company before becoming a state company.
The investment banker said that Humo is considered a strategic object for Uzbekistan. In addition, the profitability of payment system assets is much higher than that of some banks. In the first half of this year, Humo's net profit amounted to 71.7 billion soums, which means an increase of 51.2% over the year.
"The possible acquisition of Humo could result in very significant user growth for Kaspi. In the first quarter of 2024, the number of daily active users (DAU) of Kaspi.kz will be 9.1 million, and the number of monthly active users (MAU) will be 14 million "Humo card holders will be added to these numbers," said Muzaffar Rozikov.
Yodgor Gafurov noted that the minimum price (enterprise value) of Humo may not be less than 80 million dollars, without taking into account the current and projected financial indicators, applying comparative multipliers.
History of Humo
The National Interbank Processing Center was established in 2018, and the Humo payment system managed by it started operating the following year. In 2021, an agreement was reached on cooperation with Uzcard and infrastructure integration began.
From the summer of 2023, 6,400 Humo ATMs accept Uzcard bank cards on a mutual basis. Currently, work is underway on the integration of payment terminals, and this process has already reached the stage of public testing.
In May of this year, in accordance with the presidential decree, the National Interbank Processing Center was reorganized as a joint-stock company. The company issued 155,448,748 ordinary shares, each with a nominal value of 1000 sums, and they were placed by AÜGA.
In April, Shavkat Mirziyoyev approved the privatization program of state assets for the current year. This program also envisages the sale of the state share of Humo.
